ThesisEdge – S&P 500 backtest

ThesisEdge turns an investing idea into a real test on real data. You describe a strategy the way you actually think about it, for example "every month buy the 4 S&P 500 stocks with the strongest momentum, skip buying when the VIX is high, rebalance every quarter", and the app shows how it would have played out over the last 30 years.

The whole simulation runs on your phone, against a local database of 1,200+ S&P 500 companies going back to 1995. No coding, no spreadsheets.

WHAT IT DOES
• Reads plain English (and Polish) and turns it into a ready strategy.
• Runs the backtest on real history: prices, dividends, splits and point-in-time index membership, so a company only counts in the years it was actually in the index.
• Charts the result against the S&P 500 itself.
• Reports the full metrics: CAGR, Sharpe, maximum drawdown, win rate and more.
• Accounts for fees, tax, recurring deposits (DCA) and different ways of handling dividends.
• Shows every trade and how the portfolio changed over time.
• Offers a full form if you would rather set every parameter by hand.
• Saves a result and shares it as an image.

IDEAS PEOPLE TEST WITH IT
Momentum and trend following. Buying the dip. Value screens on the index. Monthly dollar cost averaging against a single lump sum. Equal weight against cap weight. Holding through a crash against selling on a signal. Dividend reinvestment against taking the cash. Anything you can say in one sentence.

WHY BACKTEST AT ALL
Most investing opinions never get checked. Thirty years of history will not tell you what happens next, but it will tell you whether an idea survived 2000, 2008 and 2020, how deep the drawdown went and how long it took to recover. Usually that is enough to drop the ideas that were never going to work.

RUNS ON YOUR PHONE
The historical database ships inside the app, so a backtest is computed locally rather than on someone else's server.

ThesisEdge is a tool for learning and testing ideas, not investment advice. Past results do not guarantee future ones.

Recent changes:
Small technical fixes. In-app purchases and the subscription work as before.