Lumina Markets

Lumina is a prediction market app for trading the outcomes of real-world events. Trade event contracts on elections, the economy, culture, tech, crypto and the weather, with prices that reflect the market's estimate of what happens next.

Lumina turns real-world questions into contracts you can trade. Will the Senate change hands? Will inflation come in above forecast? Which AI lab ships the best model? Every market has a Yes side and a No side, and its price reflects how likely traders think the outcome is.

WHAT YOU CAN TRADE
ELECTIONS & POLITICS: midterm elections, House and Senate control, governor races, primaries, legislation and appointments.
ECONOMY: CPI prints, jobs and unemployment numbers, Fed rate decisions, GDP growth, recession calls, prices at the pump.
FINANCE & CRYPTO: S&P 500 and Nasdaq levels, bitcoin and ether prices.
TECH & SCIENCE: AI model releases, product launches, space missions.
CLIMATE & WEATHER: tomorrow's high in major cities, record heat, snowfall, hurricane seasons.
WORLD: elections abroad and international events.
New markets are added regularly.

THE BASICS
• Every contract settles at $1 or $0, based on the outcome.
• Prices start at 2¢. A contract priced at 38¢ implies roughly a 38% chance.
• Example: 100 contracts on the Yes side at 38¢ cost $38. If the market resolves Yes, they settle at $100. If it resolves No, they settle at $0 and you lose the $38, plus fees.
• Positions can be closed before settlement or held until the outcome is determined.

PRICES AS FORECASTS
A market price combines the views of everyone trading it, weighted by the capital behind them. As traders respond to new information, prices adjust, giving a continuous estimate of how likely an outcome is.

WHY AN EVENT CONTRACT
You trade the outcome itself. A stock can fall on good news for reasons that have nothing to do with the event; an event contract settles on what actually happened, against a named source, on a set date. There are no strike prices, greeks or margin to manage, and the most you can lose on a contract is what you paid for it.

WHEN AN OUTCOME AFFECTS YOU
Event contracts can be used to offset exposure to specific outcomes, such as an election result, a rate decision or a jobs report that could affect a portfolio or a business.

TRADING TOOLS
• Limit and market orders
• Live prices and full price history on every market
• One portfolio view for positions, open orders and history

GETTING STARTED
Apply in the app, verify your identity, and fund your account to start trading.

REGULATED PLATFORM
Lumina Markets Inc. is a CFTC-registered introducing broker and NFA member (NFA ID 0576536). Your account is carried by Interactive Brokers LLC, and every trade executes on ForecastEx, a CFTC-designated exchange owned by Interactive Brokers Group.

Trade your world.

US persons only, 21+. Trading event contracts involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all. Event contracts are the subject of ongoing litigation and regulatory review. Contracts may be modified, suspended, or terminated on little or no notice, and settlement may occur on non-standard terms.

You can learn more about the privacy policy here: https://luminamarkets.com/privacy