Manifold Markets

Manifold is the largest social prediction market. Bet with play-money on what happens next — in politics, sports, science, tech, AI, pop culture, and your own life — and find out how well you really know the world.

Every market is a question with a probability attached, set by thousands of traders putting their (play) money where their mouth is. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it and profit when you're right.

WHAT YOU CAN DO
• Trade on thousands of live markets, from elections and championships to "will my friend finish their novel this year"
• Create your own market on anything in seconds and let the world weigh in
• Compete on leaderboards, climb the league ladder, and keep your daily streak alive
• Follow friends, comment on markets, and argue about the odds
• Get notified when markets you care about move or resolve
• Track your portfolio, profit, and forecasting accuracy over time

WHY PREDICTION MARKETS?
Prices are probabilities, so a market at 70% means traders collectively think there's a 70% chance the event happens. Manifold's forecasts have called elections, sports, and world events with striking accuracy — and you can be part of the signal.

WHO IT'S FOR
Forecasters, sports fans, politics junkies, news addicts, superforecasters-in-training, and anyone who's ever said "I bet…" and wanted to back it up.

FREE TO PLAY
Manifold runs entirely on mana, a play-money currency. You start with a free balance and earn more by trading well, creating popular markets, and logging in daily. Mana has no cash value and cannot be withdrawn or exchanged for real money. No gambling, no purchase necessary to play.

Join a community of forecasters who take being right seriously — and have fun doing it.