Statgol: Football Predictions

Statgol computes football statistics and predictions with a serious mathematical model, and honestly tells you how often it is right.

Unlike tipsters, Statgol promises nothing: it openly shows its own success rate, measured on past matches.

THE MODEL
- Poisson distribution with Dixon-Coles correction, the standard in football statistics research
- Attacking and defensive strength computed separately for home and away
- Adjustment for recent form
- Probabilities for 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, both teams to score, double chance and exact scores

12 LEAGUES
Serie A, Serie B, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1, two seasons each. Everything works offline.

TABLE AND TEAMS
Full table with recent form, home and away goal averages, Over and BTTS tendencies, goal trend of recent matches, current streaks and head-to-head. Save your favourite teams.

VALUE
Enter your bookmaker odds and Statgol compares the model probability with the one implied by the odds, highlighting where value would be. It is a statistical analysis tool: you cannot bet inside the app and there are no links to betting sites.

ACCURACY: THE MOST HONEST SECTION
A dedicated section shows how often the model would have been right, tested rigorously: every match uses only prior data, never the result to be predicted. It also shows the simulated return of the "value" strategy, even when negative.

MORE
- Light and dark theme
- 6 languages: Italian, English, Spanish, French, German, Portuguese
- Share a prediction and export it as PDF
- In-app explanations of how the model works

IMPORTANT
Statgol provides statistical estimates for information and entertainment. No result is guaranteed. The app does not accept bets, does not handle money and is not affiliated with any bookmaker. For adults only: gambling can be addictive. Play responsibly.

Match data from public sources (football-data.co.uk).

Recent changes:
The data is no longer frozen.

- The app downloads played matches on its own and recalculates tables, statistics and predictions
- Current and previous season for every league, with no need to wait for a store update
- The date of the last update is always shown at the top
- Data is kept on your phone, so the app works offline too