Noisy Alpha

Is that outperformance skill, or just noise? Noisy Alpha helps portfolio managers, risk analysts, allocators and CFA® candidates answer that question under clear statistical assumptions, entirely on your device.

SKILL VS LUCK, EXPLAINED
• Information Ratio: set a fixed skill level and see the implied alpha at your tracking risk and the probability of beating the benchmark at every horizon
• Tracking Risk: a zero-skill (IR = 0) manager, and how often luck alone clears an alpha target
• Multiple Managers: how many independent managers may outperform by chance, with correlated-manager stress testing in Pro

NEW TOOLS
• Test a real track record: paste or import fund and benchmark returns (or enter summary figures) and get the realised information ratio, t-stat, a confidence band, the years still needed to reach t ≈ 2, years spent trailing, the longest losing streak and the zero-skill probability, then send the result straight to the analysis tabs
• Cone of Luck: watch skilled and zero-skill managers diverge year by year inside the luck band, and see how often a skilled manager trails and how rarely top-quartile performance persists
• Fundamental Law: IR ≈ TC × IC × √breadth, so you can see where an IR assumption comes from and send it to the IR tab

ASK AND GLANCE
• Siri and Shortcuts answer directly: “What’s my chance of beating the benchmark?”, “How many years to be 90% sure?”, “How long a track record do I need?”
• Saved scenarios and lessons appear in Spotlight
• Home Screen and Lock Screen widgets show the odds at your chosen horizon, and a Control Center button opens the IR tool

BUILT FOR PROFESSIONAL INTUITION
• Swift Charts density and probability views with hurdle and expected-value markers, with audio graphs and spoken summaries for VoiceOver
• Horizons from one month to twenty years under square-root-of-time scaling
• Goal Seek, saved scenarios, side-by-side compare, and sharing as text, chart images or PDF reports
• Optional Explain powered by Apple’s on-device model: it streams its answer, takes follow-up questions, and gets its numbers from the app’s own formulas (educational tips appear when the model isn’t available)
• A curriculum of short lessons, labs and teaching presets

NOISY ALPHA PRO
The app includes the core Information Ratio, Tracking Risk and independent Multiple Managers analysis, the charts and the default Cone of Luck run. Noisy Alpha Pro is a one-time in-app purchase (no subscription) that adds the real track-record tester, Cone of Luck lab (custom runs, re-rolls, persistence and sharing), unlimited saved scenarios and compare, correlated-manager stress, curriculum labs and scenario packs, PDF reports, unlimited Explain with follow-ups, and saved-scenario widgets. Offer codes can be redeemed in the app.

PRIVACY BY DESIGN
• No account, no tracking, no ads
• Inputs, saved scenarios and explanations stay on your device
• No third-party AI services

IMPORTANT
Noisy Alpha is an educational statistics tool. It does not provide investment advice, recommendations or forecasts. Probabilities depend on model assumptions (for example normally distributed active returns and, where stated, independent managers) and may not match real markets.

Runs on iPhone and iPad, and on Mac and Apple Vision Pro as an iPad app.

CFA® is a registered trademark owned by CFA Institute.