Bayou Probability

Bayou Probability is a calm, intelligence-style command center for real-world risk.

It analyzes public data, historical patterns, and advanced mathematics to estimate the likelihood of important events before they happen — severe weather, power outages, disease activity, traffic, and more. Always a probability, never a certainty.

BUILT ON REAL SCIENCE
Every number comes from data and established mathematics — Bayesian inference, time-series models, Monte Carlo simulation, and ensemble forecasting — never guesswork. When the data isn't there, the app says so instead of faking a confident answer.

TRANSPARENT & EXPLAINABLE
Tap any probability to see exactly why it changed: the drivers, the reasons, and an honest forecast-versus-actual track record with real accuracy scores. Confidence is shown separately from probability, so you always know how much to trust a number.

PRIVACY FIRST
No accounts, no tracking, no ads. Your preferences stay on your device. Bayou Probability is a read-only client — it never uploads information about you.

THE EXPERIENCE
- A local probability map and active-event cards
- "Why did this change" explanations for every estimate
- A forecast history that grades itself against real outcomes
- A dark, focused interface designed for decisions

The core experience is free. Optional Pro tiers and event packs add more categories, deeper explanations, and longer history.

Probabilities are estimates meant to inform your decisions — never to replace your judgment.

Recent changes:
Every probability is computed from live public data (USGS, national weather services, NASA) and established math—never a guess. Forecast History shows each prediction checked against what actually happened, with badges showing how each category is verified. Search any location worldwide.